Spring 2026 – a challenging context
04/03/26
Rachel Reeves delayed her Autumn 2025 Budget until 26 November, creating a second consecutive protracted period of pre-Budget speculation.
The late timing also meant that her Spring Forecast has arrived just under fourteen weeks after her previous parliamentary set piece. It has, however, been an eventful few months, with U-turns on both the 2024 Budget measures relating to inheritance tax (IHT) agricultural and business reliefs and the 2025 Budget proposals for business rates. And that is before the political storms of the winter are considered, which have had their own economic impact via the uncertainty created. The current flare up of hostilities in the Middle East may, as the Office for Budget Responsibility notes, have “very significant impacts on the global and UK economies”. In turn that could call into question the Forecast numbers. With oil prices already affected and the stock and bond markets reacting negatively to the uncertainty created, the Chancellor will be hoping the repercussions do not prove too serious for UK plc by the time of her next Budget this autumn.
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