Autumn Budget 2026: what's expected, what's confirmed and what you can do now

On Wednesday 28 October, John Healey will deliver his first Budget as Chancellor. Higher borrowing costs have squeezed the government’s financial headroom, so tax rises are widely expected. Unsurprisingly, the rumour mill is in full swing.

Before we go any further, a word of caution. Anything we describe as speculation is exactly that. Budgets have a habit of surprising everyone, and some changes can take effect the moment the Chancellor sits down. Please treat this as a guide to the conversation, not a to-do list.

Which taxes are unlikely to go up?

At Labour’s recent conference in Liverpool, the Chancellor restated the government’s promise not to raise the rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. Both he and the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, also committed to sticking to the fiscal rules.

That doesn’t mean nobody will pay more. Income tax thresholds are already frozen until April 2031, quietly pulling more people into higher bands each year. The Prime Minister has also promised a new National Care Service that will be “fully funded, and not through borrowing”. With the headline rates off the table, attention turns to wealth, capital gains, property and pensions.

→ What capital gains tax changes could be announced?

Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is the most talked-about option. Rates are currently 18% and 24%. Ideas being floated include:

a modest rise in the current rates
moving closer to income tax rates of 20%, 40% and 45% (full alignment is widely seen as unlikely)
removing the "uplift" that wipes out gains on assets held at death
trimming Business Asset Disposal Relief, now 18% on up to £1m of lifetime gains.

If you are thinking of selling shares, a second property or a business, timing may matter more than usual. In October 2024, new CGT rates applied from Budget Day itself. That said, selling purely to beat a rumour can backfire, through transaction costs, losing a good long-term investment, or a change that never comes.

→ Could inheritance tax change again?

Inheritance Tax (IHT) has already changed a lot. Since April 2026, 100% relief on farms and qualifying businesses has been capped at £2.5m per person, with 50% relief above that. From April 2027, most unused pension funds will also fall into your estate. The £325,000 nil-rate band stays frozen until 2031.

Commentators expect any further changes to be targeted, for example, at reliefs or the rules on lifetime gifts, rather than a brand-new tax. The government has denied reports of a flat 10% IHT on all estates. If you have a family business, farmland or a sizeable pension, now is a good time to check that your Will and estate plan still do what you want.

→ Will pension tax-free cash be cut?

Almost every year there is talk of reducing the tax-free lump sum, currently capped at £268,275. In past years, some people rushed to take their cash, only for nothing to change.

Money taken out of a pension usually can't be put back, and it may end up in your estate for IHT anyway. Please speak to your financial adviser and us before making any decision.

→ What about property?

A new High Value Council Tax Surcharge (the so-called "mansion tax") will apply to homes in England worth over £2m from April 2028. Several reports suggest the threshold could be lowered to £1.5m, roughly doubling the number of homes affected. There has also been talk of higher charges on homes held in companies (ATED) and of treating holiday lets as second homes for council tax.

What is confirmed: from April 2027, tax on rental income rises by 2 percentage points, to 22%, 42% or 47%. If you are a landlord, it may be worth reviewing how you hold your properties. Incorporation can help in some cases, but it is not right for everyone.

→ What could it mean for business owners?

Dividend tax rose by 2 percentage points in April 2026, to 10.75% and 35.75%. From April 2029, National Insurance relief on pension salary sacrifice will be capped at £2,000 a year. Speculation for this Budget includes business rates reform, higher taxes on banks and changes to investment reliefs such as EIS and VCTs.

For owner-managers, this is a good moment to review your mix of salary, dividends and pension contributions. It is also worth looking at the timing of any big investment, and whether any sale or succession plans could be affected.

What can you do now?

Don’t act on rumour alone. If a decision would be hard to undo, talk to us first.
Already planning a sale? Speak to us now about timing and your options.
Use this year’s allowances. That means your £20,000 ISA allowance, the £3,000 CGT exemption, pension allowances (with carry forward) and IHT gift exemptions.
Review your Will and estate plan, especially if pensions make up a large part of your wealth.
Get your paperwork in order, such as valuations and purchase costs, so we can move quickly after 28 October if needed.

How mgr can help

We will publish a plain-English summary shortly after the Budget, setting out what has actually changed and who needs to act. In the meantime, if any of this applies to you, get in touch with your usual mgr contact or one of our private client team:

Jay Thurston, Tax Director: jay.thurston@mgr.co.uk

Jill Springbett, Tax Partner: jill.springbett@mgr.co.uk

Marina Trinchese, Tax Director: marina.trinchese@mgr.co.uk

This article is for general information only and reflects public reports as at 30 September 2026. It is not advice. The Budget may differ from the speculation described, and changes may take effect immediately. Please take specific advice before acting.

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